Tourism Potential Index Mapping for Underdeveloped Historical Sites in South West Nigeria: A GIS-Based Suitability Model

Abstract

Historical and cultural heritage sites in Southwest Nigeria have immense potential for tourism development but remain underdeveloped due to poor infrastructure, accessibility, and investment prioritization. While previous studies have documented the preservation problems and the state of sites, a systematized approach to site identification with the highest potential for tourism development has been lacking. This study develops a Tourism Potential Index (TPI), a GIS-based suitability model that ranks historic sites by their readiness for tourism investment. The model was built using ArcGIS Pro and was based on spatial criteria of site condition, accessibility from the road network, proximity to urban centers and transport hubs, available infrastructure, and cultural or historical importance. The criteria were weighted using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). They were combined through Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) to derive a composite suitability score per site. Twenty-six historic and cultural heritage sites were identified across the six states of Southwest Nigeria and profiled according to the managing authority, site condition, and immediate infrastructural context. The index classifies sites into different priority categories, from immediate investment to infrastructural development or even long-term conservation. This study goes beyond descriptive assessment by translating data on condition and accessibility into an explicit, spatially referenced decision support tool to enable policymakers, tourism boards, and heritage managers to prioritize scarce resources. The findings promote a more strategic and evidence-based approach to tourism planning in Southwest Nigeria, thus enhancing the sustainable conservation of heritage and unlocking the socio-economic benefits of tourism at hitherto neglected historic sites.